Wintry Spell in the East?

Posted: October 7, 2009 in Weather Stuff

Over the last couple of days I’ve been keeping a close eye on the weather forecast models because there are indications that suggest we could see some wintry showers along the Eastern side of the country sometime between the 12-18th October.

Todays 06z GFS shows the possibly wintry spell along the East slightly earlier, around the 13-15th. Although high pressure is still being forecasted too close to the UK so the -5c @ 850hPa just gets pushed to the East of us, and with high pressure that close the chance of precipitation is decreased anyway.

Still time for things to change, I haven’t given up hope that we could see some wintry showers down the Eastern side of the country. Although at the moment it does look like high pressure will be too close for anything wintry. The ECM is in strong agreement with the GFS with the placing of high pressure.

Interesting to note is that the AO is being forecasted a steep dive into a strong negative phase between the 10th and 16th October. NAO is forecasted to remain in a weak negative although past the 15th it becomes somewhat uncertain with little agreement.

So still quite uncertain at this stage, although the mostly likely outcome I think is that high pressure will be close/over the UK and the colder 850hPa air will stay to the East of us although there will definitely be a cooler feel to things, with perhaps some widespread frosts developing during clear spells at night. Things will become more certain in the coming few days.

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